Is Las Vegas constructing a new bubble? Analyst offers his take

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Steve Marcus Jeremy Aguero, a primary analyst with Applied Analysis, positions at his office complex in Summerlin Wednesday, August 3, 2011. By

contact) Wednesday, May 24, 2017|11:56 a.m. Do not fret, Las Vegas isn’t really racing toward another financial cliff.

So said expert Jeremy Aguero this morning to business, community and government leaders at the Las Vegas Global Economic Alliance’s Perspective occasion, a yearly evaluation of the local economy and projection for the coming year.

Aguero, primary analyst for the Las Vegas company Applied Analysis, said that as the city recovered from the recession and its economy had actually started growing again, he ‘d heard concerns from local citizens that Las Vegas was moving too far too fast and recreating the bubble that took it down in 2008.

“Our neighborhood is going through some sort of post-traumatic stress disorder in regards to this capability to conceive that we’re out of the economic downturn and the economy is advancing,” he said. “I get that it produced a lot of tension. (But) this neighborhood will not be judged based upon our ability to endure an economic crisis. This community will be judged on our capability to sustain our prosperity.”

Aguero made an analytical presentation showing that while Las Vegas was experiencing some of the exact same patterns that resulted in disaster during the recession– a surge in construction tasks, rising real estate rates and a boost in home structure– the levels were nowhere near their pre-recession highs. He said today’s growth was more regulated and sustainable than during the go-go days prior to the crash of 2008, when the economic downturn sent house worths toppling and suppressed building and construction, causing unemployment of nearly 15 percent and an exodus of locals.

Cases in point:

– Recent strides in decreasing joblessness, which has actually slipped to 4.7 percent, have actually taken place regardless of an overall loss in construction tasks.

“We have 40,000 more employees in Las Vegas than we did at the peak of the economy,” he stated. “And we did that with 40,000 less building and construction employees.” In 2007, there were 105,200 construction jobs in the city area, representing 11.2 percent of the work force. Today there are 61,900, or 6.3 percent.

– In 2003-04, annual gratitude of house values was at 37 percent in Las Vegas, synthetically sustained by reckless loaning practices that made loans easily offered. Today, annual appreciation is 8 percent– among the highest in the country but nowhere near the out-of-control pre-recession level.

– Although building and construction cranes have gone back to the Las Vegas Strip, Aguero stated, concerns about overcommitting to advancement in the traveler corridor are unproven. In 2007, $45.8 billion worth of tasks were on the books for the Strip. Today, that number is $14.1 billion.

“Prior to we freak out that we’re all constructing too much … I believe we ought to simply put it all in a little bit of point of view,” he said.

Aguero stated Las Vegas appeared to have learned lessons from the recession, as evidenced by efforts to diversify the economy through such initiatives as the development of the UNLV medical school. Meanwhile, casinos are countering a decline in gaming earnings by expanding their retail, dining and nightlife, making them less reliant on a single income.

Among other highlights of the occasion, held at 4 Seasons:

– Barbara Atkinson, dean of UNLV’s brand-new medical school, said the very first class of 60 trainees would begin July 17 with EMT training. Style of the facility remains in its 2nd phase, and university authorities are hoping to begin in the fall. The university is still trying to find a $100 million mega donor for the job. As soon as fully functional, Atkinson said, the school will improve the local economy by $3.68 billion a year and will bring 22,000 jobs to the valley in the next 15 years.

– In the LVGEA’s annual Data Book of statistics and analysis, experts predicted that the valley’s population would grow 2.1 percent this year (or 46,300 homeowners) and individual earnings would increase 4 percent.

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