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Could Industrial Property Get Caught in Trade War Crossfire?

Logistics Owners, Brokers and Analysts See Little Threat Now from Trump’s Obstacles to China, however Some Worry About a Full-Scale Trade War’s Result on the Market and Economy

Logistics property professionals say a prolonged trade-related slowdown in container freight traffic at the 7,500-acre Port of Los Angeles (visualized), the neighboring Port of Long Beach and other significant ports might eventually decrease demand for the industrial homes in LA, the Inland Empire and other tier one logistics markets.credit: Port of Los Angeles

Larry Callahan heads among the biggest developers of commercial realty in the Southeast, with projects found from Tennessee to Florida.

As the president of Patillo Industrial Realty in Georgia, Callahan leads his family-owned organisation in developing and managing warehouse-distribution tasks for companies as differed as compressor developer Bitzer U.S. Inc. to King’s Hawaiian Bakery.

Like the rest of what is known as the industrial realty market, the most popular asset class in all of industrial realty for the previous 2 years, Callahan’s organisation has actually been booming.

Today, he’s not too anxious about the effect of President Donald Trump’s posturing on trade.

“I do not think that the first impact of tariffs (and vindictive tariffs) has been totally priced into assets like commercial property,” he said. “And I would argue that the effect of a first round of tariffs on the prices of commercial realty is very little.”

However late yesterday, President Trump escalated the threat of a trade war by further increasing proposed tariffs by $100 billion on a variety of Chinese products as the 2 nations continue to exchange threats. The modification from project rhetoric to trade policy has actually caught some by surprise.

Today, Chinese officials threatened even more retaliation if the United States moves forward with brand-new tariffs.

If worries of a full-blown trade war concerned fruition, Callahan sees a different story unfolding. He said the threat to industrial property becomes worrisome if a major trade war emerges and slows down the general economy.

“A no-growth economy harms everyone,” stated Callahan.

Callahan echoes what many in the industrial property market are stating now about how increasing protectionism and a danger of trade war are affecting the United States industrial property market.

“It would have to be a pretty huge trade war for it to effect commercial property directly,” stated Rene Circ, director of U.S. industrial research for CoStar, adding that anything that impacts the whole economy would definitely impact industrial real estate.

Conditions in the industrial realty market remain strong – with vacancy at traditionally low numbers across the nation – however the risks have actually triggered worries of a full-scale trade war between the U.S. and China have left some commercial real estate stakeholders watching occasions unfold with anticipation.

“If these tariffs become real, they would have a massive effect,” said Richard Green, director and chairman at the USC Lusk Center for Real Estate at the University of Southern California. “If durable goods become more expensive, individuals will buy them less and that’s not good for commercial realty and the warehouses that hold [those products.]

Last month, President Trump licensed boosts on tariffs on steel and aluminum imports and is considering more in response to China’s commercial and innovation policies. China retaliated today by proposing a 25 percent increase on 106 U.S. products consisting of on such products as soybeans, automobiles, aircraft and orange juice.

The tariffs on steel and aluminum imports triggered alarming warnings from designers, specialists, REITs and property lobbying groups who said the tariffs might put more pressure on already rising structure costs and cause designers and financiers to delay, cancel or steer clear of brand-new jobs.

Today, Property Roundtable President and CEO Jeffrey DeBoer stated the new proposed tariffs, paired with the earlier tariffs on steel and aluminum and the ongoing disagreement with China, could have “unfortunate and unintended impacts on the U.S. economy by raising building and construction costs and lowering tasks in property advancement.”

Whatever from durable goods to physical container traffic might be struck by the tariffs and that might have a domino effect.

“It has actually been on financiers’ minds considering that Trump took workplace since there has been conversation about trade wars and what occurs if,” said Mike Kendall, Western region executive handling director of Investment Solutions for Colliers International in Irvine, California. “There ought to be an impact ultimately in commercial, but it hasn’t happened yet. The realty market is not like the stock exchange. The stock market is real time. In realty, it takes a lot longer to discover its method into the process and rates. Given that it [risk of trade war] is so new, we have not seen it yet.”

A more instant concern is rising construction materials and advancement expenses, considering that most of our steel and aluminum is imported from Canada, Mexico and South Korea.

Jeff Givens, senior vice president at Los Angeles workplace and commercial designer and owner Kearny Property Co., said he has coworkers who currently are hitting time out on new development projects.

“I’ve spoken with others who remain in the bidding process [for a brand-new job], with their various subcontractors involved in steel and other products that are being gone over [for increased tariffs],” he said. “They have pulled their current bids and are reassessing, I have a colleague who was ready to go forward on a big-box warehouse and the steel companies stated the quote we provided you 6 months earlier is no longer valid; we’ll return to you.”

That kind of uncertainty has a result beyond just proposed projects. Bret Hardy, who focuses on institutional commercial financial investment sales as executive handling director of the Western area capital markets team at Newmark Knight Frank, stated while it’s still too early to completely comprehend the outcome of the steel tariffs, he’s heard price quotes that steel expenses might increase by as much as 30 percent.

“When you are looking at the infill commercial property market in Los Angeles city that is priced to excellence, any incremental expense of construction might have an equivalent effect on the value of the land and the value of the jobs,” he stated. “So steel costs are a concern today.”

To be sure, commercial building does not appear to be slowing down. More than 2.3 million square feet are under building and construction in the Los Angeles metropolitan area alone, the biggest industrial market in the country, according to CoStar Group data. In the commercial market around the Ports of L.A. and Long Beach, the job rate is below 1 percent – and brokers report couple of signs of pullback.

In neighboring Inland Empire, one of the country’s largest industrial and logistics markets, two deans of the commercial realty brokerage market concurred that the current atmosphere of protectionism and the potential customers of a trade war haven’t been an element among logistics occupiers, owners and designers. At least not yet.

“There has actually been no real chatter among storage facility designers or investors out here,” stated Paul Earnhart, senior vice president with Lee & & Associates, who has actually finished over 1,000 deals for a combined $4 billion in deal value over more than 30 years in the Inland Empire.

A prolonged conflict with China or even worse, a collapse of the present NAFTA treaty impacting 2 of America’s greatest trade partners, Mexico and Canada, could alter that over the next year.

“The possibility of a long trade war has actually been on the mind of most of these logisticians to some degree,” acknowledged Chuck Belden, executive vice president with Cushman & & Wakefield’s Ontario office because 1984.

Late last year, the possibility of a tariff on devices, combined with fears of the death of Sears and JCPenney during the holiday shopping season, really developed a short-lived bump in demand for Inland Empire warehouse area. LG, Samsung and other device makers stocked stock and scooped up area where they might find it in anticipation of the tariff, combined with their reluctance to deliver product without prepayment to the two economically ailing department store chains, Belden stated.

But just recently, the prospect of brand-new tariffs has actually not had the very same result.

“I haven’t seen any pullback in the number of property trips or interested celebrations,” Belden stated, including that most logistics companies and distributors are more worried about discovering available labor, specifically motorists. “I’ve seen a slight pullback in consummated deals, but that might be a function of an absence of available stock.”

“However if Trump blows up NAFTA, everything I just stated heads out the door,” Belden said.

Ought to an appropriate trade war break out, the impact amongst industrial real estate might vary by city.

“Population markets have insulation versus a market that is more about serving the population somewhere else,” Kendall stated. “A few of these markets like Memphis that huge centers for UPS and FedEx that service national circulation, they may feel more of an impact than primary markets.”

Take Southern California, the nation’s largest commercial market, for example.

Earnhart noted that a person regional customer, a popular vehicle windshield setup company, informed him late in 2015 that its Chinese provider, which had actually previously delivered windshields from China to Southern California, had actually just recently purchased a former car factory in his home town of Dayton, OH.

Now, 60 percent of the local company’s windshields concern its Inland Empire warehouse from Dayton.

“No matter where those windshields are made, they’re being warehoused here because this is where all individuals live,” Earnhart said.

Not everybody is fretted about tariffs. Some are positive that domestic production gets where foreign production drops off. Others are betting that the threat of tariffs is just a settlement strategy that won’t become truth.

In the meantime, Kendall agrees, most commercial property stakeholders will take a measured approach, as he recalled conversation of a trade war that never concerned fulfillment last year.

“We have actually seen this sufficient before where there’s an overreaction to what happens,” he stated. “People are nearly getting jaded by all this news and are believing I simply need to concentrate on what really takes place. Up until we see an impact, we aren’t going to change our business plans.”

When it comes to Callahan, he concurs: “There are always problems to handle, but we are optimistic about the future.”

CoStar News press reporters Randyl Drummer, Tony Wilbert and Mark Heschmeyer added to this report.

KingSett Planning To Strengthen Industrial Presence

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Toronto-based Business Buys Website Near Airport, Part of Slate Acquisitions Flip of Cominar REIT Assets

Envisioned: 33-acre industrial website obtained by KingSett Capital near Toronto Pearson Airport.KingSett Capital,

wanting to broaden its existence in the industrial sector, has actually purchased a 33-acre site near the Toronto airport that it anticipates to be part of a substantial future transportation hub, the business said in a LinkedIn post. The home, known as the American Business Park, includes 552,675 square feet of industrial area that, inning accordance with sources, is another example of Toronto-based Slate flipping properties it recently acquired from Cominar Property Financial Investment Trust. KingSett stated it was purchasing the property on behalf of its core income

fund, and described it as a” extremely functional little, medium and big bay commercial and flex office located in the Pearson International Airport Megazone. “The company said it expects the area to be specified by the” highly anticipated production of the GTAA Regional Transit Centre, being dubbed Union Station West that will combine” local transit systems. KingSett, which manages possessions of$ 10.5 billion in a$ 12.5 billion portfolio, said it is aiming to broaden its commercial footprint and renter offerings in such tactical locations as the airport hub. The business’s president, Jon Love, reiterated that on his LinkedIn feed.” We are adding to our commercial footprint. Would also enjoy to captivate non-managing( joint venture) interests with the right partners on the ideal assets,” he said. The commercial sector in Canada continues to be hot, buoyed by a handle January that saw Blackstone Group LP, through an affiliate, consent to pay$ 3.8 billion for openly traded Pure Industrial Realty Trust. Some experts had stated the rate related to a cap rate of 4.7 percent, among the greatest assessments seen for industrial property in Canada. The KingSett transaction with Slate seems the latest domino from an offer announced in December 2017 that saw Quebec-City based Cominar

sell $1.14 billion of possessions to Slate Acquisitions, a deal that included 97 residential or commercial properties totaling 6.2 million square feet situated in the Greater Toronto Location, the Atlantic provinces and western Canada. As CoStar News previously reported, Slate had actually been flipping a few of the properties gotten in the deal and had many on the block. Slate is said to have already offered an office

building at 55 University Ave. and 2 shopping center, Dixie Outlet Shopping Mall and Woodside Square, that it had acquired in the transaction. Cominar revealed Tuesday that it had closed the deal with Slate Acquisitions Inc.” and its designees” for gross profits of$ 1.14 billion. Slate is presuming approximately $106.2 million of mortgage financial obligation. By turning some of the homes, prior to the close, millions of

land transfer taxes were avoided. Garry Marr, Toronto Market Press Reporter CoStar Group.

Tahoe Reno Industrial Park designer lauds Trump’s mission to cut red tape

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Tahoe Reno Industrial Center designer Lance Gilman, envisioned in 2014, recently stated that President Donald Trump’s efforts to cut federal regulations will stimulate economic development in Northern Nevada.

Friday, Nov. 24, 2017|2 a.m.

Lance Gilman, partner-broker of the Tahoe Reno Industrial Center, just recently returned from Washington, D.C., excited about President Donald Trump’s ability to cut federal policies instead of writing them.

He stated Trump’s concentrate on deregulating was the focus as Gilman consulted with high-ranking members of the administration along with other state, county and community leaders from throughout the nation.

Gilman, likewise a Storey County commissioner, was pleased that the administration would seek the viewpoints of “grass-roots” chosen authorities. He said on “Nevada Newsmakers” that he is positive that deregulation will stimulate financial advancement in Northern Nevada.

“They are taking a look at simplifying, decontroling and (seeking) less documentation,” Gilman stated.

Trump has withdrawn more than 800 proposed policies from the Obama administration, according to multiple news reports.

Gilman called Trump’s deregulation agenda “the unknown story of the administration,” suggesting that Trump’s deregulation strategy is a larger success than Trump placing a brand-new justice on the United States Supreme Court.

“I’m sure this is what is driving our stock exchange,” Gilman said. “Folks know. It is occurring at all levels– monetary, advancement– it’s just incredible.”

Gilman is optimistic about future federal funding for jobs in Northern Nevada. He likewise sees Trump cutting the length of time to get licenses for advancements and developing tasks under of the National Environmental Policy Act (NEPA).

“We’re visiting some significant modifications in the amount of documents required and the timelines they are now committing,” Gilman said.

Highway building was also discussed with federal authorities, Gilman said.

“One of the problems we are looking at in your area is federal facilities– Interstate 80, perhaps brand-new highways or facilities advancement,” Gilman said.

“The Nevada Department of Transportation gets a lot of compliments from the federal level,” he stated. “But NDOT’s hands are connected when it comes to NEPA authorizations. That is your national environmental license. (They must be authorized) before you can touch anything of a federal nature, and those licenses typical nine years to obtain one.”

While I-80 would be a top priority for Gilman’s Tahoe Reno Industrial Complex (TRI), he also sees many more areas where federal highway dollars could be invested in Northern Nevada.

“(U.S.) 395 is running north and south with rush hour, so the information that I received from NDOT is that they want to see about $3 billion worth (of tasks) over the next 10 years approximately carried out here in Northern Nevada. All that, naturally, needs NEPA authorizations.’

In addition to more east-west port roadways, other facilities improvements are required, Gilman said.

Gilman said he is less confident that Congress will approve financing. “I don’t understand what is taking place on Congress, openly,” Gilman stated. “I’m very disappointed in that side of our federal government.”

Trump is not getting the credit for what he is aiming to achieve, Gilman said. “I am going to tell you that Trump is like that duck and he is paddling genuine quick under water,” he said.

Ray Hagar is a retired political journalist from the Reno Gazette-Journal and present reporter/columnist for the Nevada Newsmakers podcast and site, nevadanewsmakers.com. Follow Ray on Twitter at @RayHagarNV.

High Prices, Limited Building Tempting Industrial Portfolio Sellers Back Into Sales Market

Heightened Year-End Trading Could Push U.S. Logistics, Light-Industrial Investment Volumes Past 2016 Levels

Practically any way you take a look at it, from increasing rents and e-commerce-related leasing demand, to strong financial investment sales and pricing, 2017 is forming up as perhaps the greatest year on record for U.S. industrial property.

” It’s really hard to find anything unfavorable to state about the current market,” stated Rene Circ, director of U.S. research study, commercial at CoStar Portfolio Method, who co-presented the 2017 Q3 State of the United States Industrial Market with senior handling specialist Shaw Lupton.

Net absorption of logistics area increased 3.3% in the 3rd quarter from a year ago while the U.S. job rate for industrial area reached another historical low of 6.5%, even as new supply increase by more than 3%, and light-industrial structures ticked down to 3.1%.

On the other hand, lease growth in both the warehouse and light commercial classifications once again surpassed a remarkable 6% in the 3rd quarter.

Stimulated by e-commerce supply chains that require merchants to bring larger stocks to satisfy next-day or same-day shipment expectations in warehouse closer to large population centers, logistics and light-industrial principles have actually clearly outshined the workplace, retail and multifamily sectors so far this year.

” And this explains why there’s so much interest and capital from foreign and domestic financiers flowing into the sector,” Lupton included.

” While some financiers may want they had actually invested in 2014, we still think commercial represents a great relative worth for investors putting capital today. We’ve seen an impressive run up in costs and we anticipate more growth in the sector,” Lupton said.Return of the

Industrial Portfolio Premium

Financial investment sales of storage facility and circulation facilities stay off the blistering speed set in 2015 and 2016 when foreign capital-fueled huge portfolio and platform purchases by Blackstone Group, LP, KTR Capital Partners and others resulted in record levels of financial investment volume.

Nevertheless, while couple of large portfolios were readily available on the marketplace in the very first half of 2017, financial investment activity got in the 3rd quarter and purchasers are again paying a premium for portfolios as “another wave concerns the market,” Circ stated.

” We understand there are brand-new portfolios back on the market that will cost $2 billion or more, so there’s a likelihood we’ll end year on a positive note in terms of sales volume, and we expect 2018 will begin on a strong note,” Circ said.

Earlier this month, Blackstone Group acquired 38 metropolitan commercial residential or commercial properties totaling 4.4 million square feet in Los Angeles County and the Inland Empire for $500 million from Des Moines, IA-based Principal Real Estate Investors.

Blackstone, which sold its IndCor portfolio to International Logistic Characteristic, Ltd. (GLP) for an incredible $8 billion in 2015, leapt back into the logistics sector more than a year ago with the $1.5 billion acquisition of logistics residential or commercial properties amounting to over 26 million square feet from LBA Real estate. Like many buyers, the private-equity giant is concentrated on obtaining “last-mile” circulation residential or commercial properties serving e-commerce near major population centers.

In other big offers since completion of the 3rd quarter, Toronto-based Granite Realty Financial investment Trust completed its $122.8 million purchase of a 2.2 million-square-foot Midwest commercial portfolio from Brookfield Asset Management’s Atlanta-based commercial real estate subsidiary, IDI Gazeley.

Duke Real Estate Corp. (NYSE: DRE) agreed to acquire a 10-building, 3.4 million-square-foot portfolio and a set of development parcels from Chicago-based Bridge Development Partners in a deal valued at nearly $700 million.

Supply (Mostly) in Balance with Need

While some experts have actually alerted of oversupply in certain U.S. markets, construction starts moderated in the third quarter, causing development volumes that disappointed need and additional improved U.S. rent growth, according to Prologis, Inc. (NYSE: PLD), the world’s biggest owner and designer of industrial space.

“For the very first time in my profession, net absorption is being constrained by a serious shortage of area,” Prologis Chairman and CEO Hamid Moghadam informed investors during the logistics giant’s current third-quarter profits conference. “Tight land and labor markets are functioning as governors on new building and construction.”

Moghadam added “we are hearing consistent feedback from our consumers telling us that they are operating at capacity and that is hard for them to discover extra quality space in the right locations.”

Nevertheless, with foreign capital completing versus domestic capital for the very best offers and bidding up costs, REITs and other traditional acquirers have dialed back acquisitions and refocusing on pursuing yields through advancement.

“For us to take down a big portfolio and the financing threats that brings, and after that have to arrange through and keep half– or less than half– of the residential or commercial properties, that’s a quite inefficient and expensive method to acquire possessions,” Phil Hawkins, president and CEO of DCT Industrial Trust (NYSE: DCT).

CoStar Analysis: More Than One-Quarter of Houston'' s Industrial Property May Have Suffered Flood Damage

Flooding in Texas and Louisiana impacted almost one-fifth of U.S. oil-refining capacity, sending gas rates higher and raising concerns for future supply.

As the flood waters finally begin to decline in Texas and Louisiana, authorities warn the storm waters continue to present risks to life and property. Nevertheless, the area is moving into healing mode and beginning to take a full step of the unmatched destruction brought by Typhoon Harvey.

A CoStar Group, Inc. assessment of the possible impact of the legendary storm on the Houston commercial realty market reveals that 27% of the market’s gross leasable location, representing approximately $55 billion in home worth, was likely affected by flooding.

Included in the approximated is 175 million square feet of industrial area located within the Houston metro’s 100-year flood zone that appears to have actually been inundated by the epic floodwaters, consisting of some 72,000 apartment or condo units and 20 million square feet of office. Another 225 million square feet sits in the broader 500-year floodplain as well as appears to have been impacted by flooding.

Harvey, which initially made landfall at Rockport, TX, as a Classification 4 hurricane early Aug. 26 then stalled over the Texas coast, broke all records to become the wettest hurricane in the adjoining United States, and the greatest in regards to wind speed to strike the nation given that Cyclone Charley in 2004. Weather specialists have approximated that through Wednesday, the storms had disposed an approximated 20 to 25 trillion gallons of water on Texas and Louisiana.

” Unfortunately, the variety of displaced locals might be far bigger than current media reports show,” CoStar Group creator and CEO Andrew Florance stated. “Our property-by-property review of the possessions in the flood plain reveals an outsized share includes low- to moderate-income families, including those in southwest Houston, where the bayous overflowed.”

Editor’s note: Click here to see CoStar’s microsite on Harvey’s impact on Houston business residential or commercial property, consisting of a map, charts and a list of possibly affected homes.

Greater Houston ranks as the sixth-largest U.S. metro location in the United States by total CRE space at 1.6 billion square feet. An overall of 12,000 residential or commercial properties with 400 million square feet of area are within the Federal Emergency situation Management Administration (FEMA) designated 500-year flood plain zone. Only 9 million square feet of that area, consisting of 4,000 apartments, is located within a designated floodway.

Inning accordance with CoStar data, $16 billion of the $55 billion in property at risk is comprised of apartment within the 100-year flood zone. The key question for all CRE owners, investors, tenants and analysts is now what does it cost? of that home has or will sustain damage due to water incursion.

CoStar is planning to conduct an air survey to more totally examine the damage as soon as it is authorized to do so.

The densely inhabited Southwest Houston submarket, the home of more than 66,000 house systems, is most likely to be the district most affected by flooding. Almost 30% of the submarket’s apartment systems are estimated to be impacted, with the Braeburn, Greater Fondren and Sharpstown communities having the largest variety of units within the 100-year flood zone.

Each of those communities borders Brays Bayou, among the river ways that snakes through southwest Houston and has actually overflowed because of the historic torrential rains.Click to Broaden. Story Continues Listed below

An extra 5 million square feet of space is under building within the floodplain, including 3,144 apartment or condo systems, representing about one-fifth of the 25 million square feet of CRE under building and construction in Houston, including more than 12,000 apartment units.

The Greenspoint district, which has had elevated jobs following the departure of ExxonMobil in late 2015, is the metro’s most affected office submarket, with some 3.5 million square feet falling within the 100-year floodplain.

Couple of Definitive Damage Reports Yet Offered

Numerous CRE owners and supervisors had actually not yet had the ability to access their properties as of mid-week, not to mention make a comprehensive price quote of losses from Harvey, which has discarded practically 52 inches of rain in parts of southeastern Texas. At least 37 deaths had been reported as of early Thursday.

Pure Multi-Family REIT LP, a Vancouver-based multifamily REIT, reported that its 216-unit Boulevard at Deer Park residential or commercial property in the suburb of Deer Park southeast of Houston was positioned under an evacuation order due to flooding in the immediate area. The business did not right away have an evaluation of potential damages.

The business’s second Houston home, the 352-unit Broadstone Walker Commons in League City south of Houston, Texas, was not materially impacted by the storm, though they will continue to keep an eye on the property. 10 residential or commercial properties in Dallas Fort Worth, 4 residential or commercial properties in San Antonio, and one property in Austin

Pure Multi-Family REIT, which owns 10 properties in Dallas/Fort Worth, 4 homes in San Antonio, and one home in Austin, stated it will make comprehensive evaluations in coming days and weeks to examine the extent of any damage.

” We prepare for that it may take weeks to adequately assess the damage, if any, at our two homes in the Houston location,” stated Pure Multi-Family CEO Steve Evans. “As a regular course of company, Pure Multi-Family has insurance coverage in effect at all of our apartment homes.”

” It is going to spend some time for the extent of the damage in the higher Houston location to be completely understood,” Evans stated.

A variety of REITs and other CRE owners issued statements offering update on their Houston-area properties and efforts to help personnel and occupants, with companies reporting they have adequate property and casualty insurance coverage in location, which wind and rain was hindering damage assessments, including single-family home rental firm American Houses 4 Rent, which owns about 3,200 rental houses in the Houston market location.

” Our evaluation will be ongoing for numerous days,” stated American Residences 4 Rent CEO David Singelyn.Oil, Gas Line Damages to Increase Gas Costs Walter Kemmsies, a managing director, economist and chief strategist for JLL’s U.S. Ports, Airports and International Facilities Group, tells CoStar that direct and indirect damage from the disaster, while not yet understood, will definitely have an effect that ripples throughout the country. Damage to oil and gas pipelines

will cause supply issues that will lead to increased fuel costs throughout the United States, a process that has actually already started. With more than a dozen refineries closed due to flooding, the nationwide average hit$ 2.43 per gallon as of mid-afternoon Wednesday, up 7 cents from a week back, inning accordance with consumer details site GasBuddy.com. From the point of view of impact to U.S. seaports, Harvey is similar in magnitude and impact to cyclones Katrina and Sandy, while farmers will have to assess agricultural damage to crops that were entering into the late-summer harvesting season. JLL Managing Director Walter Kemmsies stated seaports such as Port Houston could feel the sting of Cyclone Harvey economic effects. “All this taking place prior to the cresting of the flood waters,” Kemmsies stated.

” Which water still has to drain (prior to the extent of the problems is known). We’re all simply biting our nails. “As a result of the Panama Canal expansion and increased downstream demand in current

years, port volumes and industrial real estate demand are higher than ever in Gulf Coast ports, Kemmsies kept in mind. At Port Houston, for instance, 20-foot equivalent system (TEU )volumes increased from 4.6% to 5.2 %of overall U.S. TEU volumes from 2010 to 2017, he stated. Under contingency plans that enter into impact at the first warning of a typhoon, cargo slated for export would have been

rerouted to other upland ports, and Port Houston could see decreased shipping volumes because Typhoon Harvey will likely disrupt railway connections as far as a few hundred miles away, Kemmsies added. CoStar Senior News Editor Mark Heschmeyer added to this report.

Office, Industrial Sales Hold Steady Even as Total CRE Sales Volume Continues to Wander Lower in First-Half 2017

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Higher Rates, a Developing Cycle and Political Uncertainty Have Financiers Asking Concerns About CRE’s Core Appear at Midyear 2017

Investors continued to buy less industrial real estate in both the 2nd quarter and the very first half of 2017 compared to the exact same periods a year back, a trend that started in 2016 as steady principles that have actually resulted in generally robust occupancies and rental rate gains have increased valuations across a lot of home types.

However, CRE investment sales are still running about 10% above the historic sales volume average over the previous Ten Years, inning accordance with initial U.S. financial investment sales information collected by CoStar’s across the country research study group. In the second quarter, preliminary volume was up to $106.7 billion compared to $129.2 billion in second-quarter 2016.

Editor’s Note: For professional analysis of commercial home markets, CoStar subscribers can sign up for CoStar’s upcoming Midyear 2017 State of the CRE Market Review & & Projection webinars by going to and choosing the Knowledge Center tab. Set up webinars consist of United States Workplace (July 20), United States Retail (July 27) United States Multifamily (August 3) and United States Industrial (August 10).

The accommodations residential or commercial property sector saw the most significant decline in the first half of the year compared with hotel residential or commercial property sales in the same duration in 2016, including a significant drop in the second quarter from year-prior totals. Retail and multifamily likewise post sales volume decreases of more than 20% in the first six-month duration of 2017.

The drop-off in U.S. apartment deal volume from previous peak levels follows slowing lease development and the market’s understanding of oversupply, especially at the top of the multifamily market, kept in mind CoStar research strategist John Affleck.

That being said, even as purchasers and sellers have continued to benefit from low rates of interest, which supported the trading volume amongst all types of commercial home that led to the record-shattering speed of the last two years. With rate of interest starting to trend up, the low-financing benefit enjoyed by property financiers is anticipated to gradually decrease in coming quarters.

” Greater rates of interest have financiers reviewing industrial realty’s core appeal this cycle: a large spread in a low-yield world,” Affleck included. “The maturity of the financial cycle and the brand-new administration likewise raise unpredictability.”

While commercial sales volume decreased by double digits in the second quarter, the storage facility and light industrial market ended the first half of this year with the smallest decrease amongst the significant home types.

Conversely, workplace sales volume was roughly even in the second quarter of 2017 compared with the very same duration a year previously, and was down just somewhat in the first half compared with the first two quarters of in 2015 and down by an even lower percentage for the routing four-quarter period ending June 30, 2017.

Regardless of the modest decreases in the sales volumes, “signs from our customers, especially loan providers, are that the pipeline for 2017 is really strong for the remaining part of the year,” stated Walter Page, CoStar director of U.S. Research study, workplace.

Page likewise noted that office sales over the past year do not consider an additional $30 billion in brand-new office property expected to provide in 2017 due to the 90 million square feet of expected office deliveries within the top 54 U.S. cities.

” While the sales data is tracking property sales, the true level of capital transactions would count new building and construction too,” Page added.Click to Expand. Story Continues Listed below

U.S. office fundamentals are tracking at a steady and balanced clip, with typical job holding at about an average 10.2% for each of the last 4 quarters, Page noted.

” The last time we had 4 quarters in a row with the same job rate was back in 2003 and 2004, when vacancy was 12.5%,” Page said, adding that CoStar’s forecast calls for vacancy to remain in the 10.2% to 10.5% variety till 2019 as delivery of new workplace supply is expected to track with demand and net absorption.

The initial data shows both suburban and CBD workplace homes logged boosts in the average price per square foot between the very first and second quarters of 2017, according to CoStar Vice President of Research Dean Violagis.

Industrial: E-Commerce Continues to Drive Storage facility Need

Likewise, the United States logistics and light-industrial home market remains in healthy balance, with more than $33 billion in U.S. industrial sales recorded in the first half, down just a little from the very same duration in 2016.

” Investor appetite remains strong for industrial properties in large part since of the compelling e-commerce demand story,” kept in mind CoStar Portfolio Strategy Managing Specialist Shaw Lupton. “With industrial building in balance with supply, lease growth stays uncharacteristically the highest of any home sector.”

Logistics tenancies have actually seen little modification over the previous few quarters, ending the 2nd quarter of 2017 at 93.4% as second-quarter absorption totaled a strong 42.8 million square feet, owning the 12-month tracking average to 182.3 million square feet.

Strong interest from the capital markets should keep commercial yields low, even in the face of increasing interest rates, Lupton concluded.Retail: Shop Closures Affecting Investor Appeal The continuous spate of store closure statements this year have had a measurable influence on the liquidity of U.S. retail residential or commercial properties, with financial investment volume reducing by significant percentages in the second quarter and very first half of 2017 compared with the very same duration a year previously, inning accordance with CoStar Portfolio Technique handling consultant Ryan McCullough. The retail market published its 2nd straight quarter of flat principles in the 2nd quarter, with vacancies holding at 5.2 %. Need has lagged behind supply development considering that the start of the year as the market officially transitions to a” late growth “phase in the realty cycle, reducing rent growth expectations for property managers, McCullough said.However, the revealed closures by dozens of national chains, including Sears, Kmart, Macy’s, JC Penney, RadioShack, Payless ShoeSource and most recently, Gymboree, have actually not had a similar result on pricing, McCullough noted. Retail property pricing has actually increased by 8.5% over the previous four quarters, according to the equal-weighted CoStar Commercial Repeat Sale Index( CCRSI ).” This divergence is possibly an indication that financiers taking a more crucial eye towards asset quality, being more

selective about acquisition targets but still valuing performing properties extremely,” McCullough stated. Both composite indices within the CoStar Commercial Repeat-Sale Index( CCRSI )posted gains in May, even as slower growth on top end of the CRE market continued while total absorption moderated and deal volume continued to pattern downward. The equal-weighted U.S. Composite Index, which reflects more many however lower-priced residential or commercial property sales normal of secondary and tertiary markets, increased 1.3% in Might

, adding to a yearly gain of 16.7 %in the 12-month period ending in May 2017. On the other hand, the value-weighted U.S. Composite Index, which reflects the bigger possession sales common in core markets, advanced by just 0.3% in Might, for a total 4.8% gain for the 12-month period ending in May.

Ivanhoé Cambridge Obtains Evergreen Industrial Properties from TPG Real Estate

Financier Interest in ‘Last Mile’ Warehouses Remains Hot as Montreal-based Investor Closes on U.S. Light Industrial Portfolio Owner

Montreal-based Ivanhoé Cambridge made its first significant relocation into the ‘last mile’ storage facility market this week, closing on its purchase of Evergreen Industrial Residence from personal equity financial investment company TPG Real Estate. The investment system of Montreal pension fund advisor Caisse de Depot et Positioning du Quebec announced it plans to purchase more.

Financial terms of the deal were not divulged, although media reports hypothesized the owner/operator of the 16 million-square-foot light industrial portfolio across 150 homes cost roughly $1 billion.

Evergreen, which concentrates on infill, multi-tenant distribution residential or commercial properties measuring less than 250,000 square feet, has buildings in 18 markets, consisting of Seattle, Denver, and Charlotte, Atlanta, Chicago, and Dallas. Such properties are in hot need by investors who see them as serving the ‘last-mile’ distribution channel for online retailers to consumers.

“We began looking at companies in the commercial property sector over two years ago with the intention of making a tactical financial investment in this possession class,” stated Arthur Lloyd, president, Workplace The United States and Canada, at Ivanhoé Cambridge. “Industrial property uses an appealing present return and good diversification for our workplace portfolio in regards to underlying financial chauffeurs. Our company believe we have actually discovered the right fit with Evergreen. We continue to look for chances as we plan to grow our industrial service in the years to come.”

TPG Property developed Evergreen in 2014, seeding the platform with a 7.5 million square foot portfolio acquisition. In May 2014, it purchased a portfolio of 59 properties including 7.48 million square feet from affiliates of Prologis for $375 million about $21/square foot.

That deal was followed in August 2014 with a second portfolio buy from Prologis involving 25 homes amounting to 3 million square feet for $95.1 million or about $32/square foot.

Through 11 distinct acquisitions, Evergreen then went on to obtain an extra 127 residential or commercial properties in 18 target audience. Those offers consisted of 2 big portfolio buys:

A portfolio of 42 properties consisting of 3.42 million square feet purchased in September 2015 from affiliates of Crow Holdings for $162.9 million or about $50/square foot;
A portfolio of 32 residential or commercial properties consisting of 1.66 million square feet purchased in August 2015 from the Fleeman household for $103 million or about $62/square foot.

“In producing Evergreen, we saw an opportunity to develop a platform that was positioned to take advantage of a dynamic sector shift to “last mile” and infill places by light industrial and e-commerce users,” said Avi Banyasz, partner and co-head of TPG Realty.

Graydon Bouchillon, a former executive at Nest Capital and Cobalt Capital, joined Evergreen as its CEO in 2015. Ivanhoé Cambridge got Evergreen’s complete operating platform in addition to its portfolio, and Bouchillon is anticipated to stay on under the company’s brand-new ownership.

On the other hand, other major investors continue to make forays into the light-industrial market. After buying a 55-warehouse portfolio totaling 6 million square feet in April, TPG-rival Blackstone is reported to be thinking about buying another 8.7 million-square-foot commercial portfolio from a DRA Advisors partnership.

That offer reportedly includes 100 light-industrial buildings with a heavy concentration in northern California with the remaining properties located in the St. Louis and Indianapolis markets.

Nevada to open retail for industrial hemp as production expands

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Yvonne Gonzalez A cherry wine stress commercial hemp plant grows inside a Pahrump nursery while Nevada Department of Farming Industrial Hemp program supervisor Russell Wilhelm, industrial hemp manufacturer Duff Taylor and alfalfa and hemp farmer John Roundy, who owns the land, chat in the background on Thursday, July 6, 2017. A brand-new law is opening up retail sales for items used these kinds of Nevada-grown plants, which include almost no THC.

Click to enlarge photo

Although much of the state’s commercial hemp crops went unused without a retail market, Taylor stated the commercial hemp plants he and Roundy grow are processed for their medical usages, so they had more options for their yield.

He said the plants are basically the like those that wind up in dispensaries, with the main exception being that industrial hemp plants have hardly any THC.

“You can chew on it, smoke it, do whatever you want and you’re not going to get high,” Taylor says.

Wilhelm states only female plants will be planted to avoid any pollination. Taylor said the plants will develop buds, which have the heaviest medical worth, and those buds will continue to grow bigger if they remain unpollinated.

Taylor stated the plants were being kept shaded to secure them from the extreme heat prior to they’re planted. Wilhelm stated the state’s pilot program is intended to assist test for whether hemp can be grown effectively in the state’s diverse environment.

Landowner and alfalfa farmer John Roundy has actually been contracted by Taylor, the applicant permittee who brought the seeds into the state, to raise hemp plants under the state’s program. Taylor has a partner at a development company in Las Vegas who has the rights to the land and the water there.

Roundy has spent his life farming, relocating to Pahrump in 2011. He says his routine crop is alfalfa, which is a perennial, whereas hemp needs to be replanted every year.

“It’s a various crop,” he stated, but it’s still a plant with all the basic needs that come along with growing.

“You can express the oil from the hemp seeds themselves and it’s extremely dietary,” Roundy stated. “People are using it for dietary supplements.”

Taylor says that now that retail is coming online, Nevada has to intensify its industrial-level processing. The 4- to 5-acre parcel grown on Roundy’s land last year produced about 4,000 pounds of harvest and needed to be sent of state for processing, Taylor stated.

This year, Taylor’s pending application with the state is for 60 acres.

Wilhelm stated Nevada’s commercial hemp industry is still in its embryonic stage, however that he hopes it can grow to the level seen in Colorado, where 9,000 acres were planted last year.

“Industrial hemp is type of a novelty product, so a great deal of individuals are trying to find industrial hemp as a material in, say, cosmetics or consumables,” Wilhelm stated. “I believe that it definitely has a quite big function to play in Nevada’s retail economy.”

Hampshire Cos. Sells Six-Bldg Industrial Portfolio for $147 Million

AEW Capital Management Obtains 1.2 Million SF Across Northern New Jersey

June 20, 2017

Boston-based AEW Capital Management acquired a six-property Northern New Jersey industrial portfolio from The Hampshire Cos. for $146.85 million, or about $121 per square foot.This deal totals about 1.22 million square feet in structures situated across the Route 46 Corridor, Teterboro Airport, Fairfield, and Carteret/Avenel commercial submarkets. Of the six properties, 200 Middlesex Ave. in Carteret, NJ, is the biggest at 408,437 square feet and is currently inhabited by Continental Terminals.Other prominent occupants that are included within the portfolio are R.R. Donnelley, RLB Food Distributers and Sealed Air.” With demand high and product restricted, now was the right time to perform our financial investment strategy and sell the portfolio,”Todd Anderson of The Hampshire Cos. said in a release.The vacancy rate in the market is a tight 5% and asking rental rates averages$6.64 per square foot in the existing quarter, inning accordance with CoStar data.Jody Thornton, Jon Mikula, Jose Cruz, David Giancola, and Rob Borny of HFF, Inc. represented Hampshire Cos. in the transaction. Andrew Zak supplied in-house representation for AEW Capital Management.Please see CoStar COMPS # 3929541 for more information on the transaction. “Go To National News Page